Understanding Happiness

Happiness is as hard to define as it is to achieve. Everybody wants to be happy. Even masochists. I think it is best to use  a non-constructive definition:

Happiness is the goal that drives all human actions and desires.

If long term happiness if everybody's ultimate goal, then it is worth learning how to achieve long term happiness. In fact, if being happy is the ultimate goal (as opposed to say, being wealthy), then our education system should also be teaching us how to be happy over a life time, rather than purely technical or vocational skills. Simple GDP growth does not imply an increase in the happiness of a society -- as indicated by data from the last ~40 years in the US, comparing per capita GDP and happiness levels:

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While per capita GDP has risen more or less steadily, happiness levels have remained more or less stagnant in the last ~40 years.

Should countries develop public policy with the goal of making a society happier, rather than with the goal of increasing GDP? I think it is an idea worth exploring (Scandinavian countries seem to rank highest in in the world in happiness scores, despite high taxes). The government of Bhutan came up with the Gross National Happiness index, which measures the average life satisfaction of the citizens in a country.

World_Map_of_Happiness

This correlates well with health, access to education, and wealth (GDP per capita). At any given time, the relationship between average happiness of a country and per capita GDP seems to log-linear, meaning that happiness is roughly linear in the log of the per capita GDP.

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This is because in order to increase the happiness level of a society by 1 unit, the increase in wealth required is proportional to the current welath. For e.g., if the required amount of increase in personal wealth for a group with per capita income of $1000 is $x, then it is $10x for a group with per capita income of $10,000.

Near the end of this talk, Daniel Kahneman says that in a study done with the Gallup organization, he found that:

Below an income of … $60,000 a year, people are unhappy, and they get progressively unhappier the poorer they get. Above that, we get an absolutely flat line. … Money does not buy you experiential happiness, but lack of money certainly buys you misery.

Kahneman distinguishes between two types of happiness: that of the experiencing self and that of the reflecting self. It is possible to be happy in the experiencing self but have a poor happiness score when reflecting on a long time frame in the past, and vice-versa. For the type of happiness that measure life satisfaction in retrospect, there is no flat time -- i.e. it continues to increase with increasing wealth. I don't find this too surprising. It is the difference between short term and long term happiness. It is easy to be happy in the short term at the expense of the long term. On the other hand, tolerating displeasure during hard work in the present can have a huge payoff in long term happiness in the future.

In this TED talk, Dan Gilbert showcases his research that shows that happiness can be synthesized by individuals. So happiness is not some finite resource that needs to be distributed among people, instead one can simply choose to be happy, despite seemingly adverse conditions. This is fascinating, because it provides experimental evidence that happiness has to do not just with our external circumstances (such as GDP per capita), but also with how we process information in our minds. Several religions have the concept of expressing gratitude. The act of being grateful basically synthesizes happiness out of thin air.

Defining Intelligence

Intelligence is a slippery thing to define. The following definition recently struck me:

That which allows one to maximize happiness over long term.

I like this definition because it is short (c.f. MDL, Occam's Razor), it makes logical sense, and it carries a lot of meaning without going into details of how to be intelligent. It is logical to me because of the following argument: Suppose a person is allowed to life two versions of his life starting from some fixed point in his life. All events and circumstances in the two versions are the same except for actions taken by the person. Then he can be said to be more intelligent in that version of his life in which he achieves greater happiness over the rest of his life.

Intelligence is needed in order to understand what actions will make us happy, for how long, and whether there will be any effects of those actions on our future happiness. Making decisions to maximize cumulative happiness is certainly a non-trivial task. Sometimes one must put oneself through short-term adversity (e.g. graduate school at little on no stipend, or an athlete undergoing gruelling training for a race) to be able to do well later. Sometimes, one decides to undertake an action that provides short term happiness, but at the cost of long term happiness. It takes intelligence to learn to avoid such behaviour n the future.

Modern definitions of intelligence from the scientific and psychology community are incredibly long-winded [Wikipedia]

A very general mental capability that, among other things, involves the ability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly and learn from experience. It is not merely book learning, a narrow academic skill, or test-taking smarts. Rather, it reflects a broader and deeper capability for comprehending our surroundings—"catching on," "making sense" of things, or "figuring out" what to do.

and:

Individuals differ from one another in their ability to understand complex ideas, to adapt effectively to the environment, to learn from experience, to engage in various forms of reasoning, to overcome obstacles by taking thought. Although these individual differences can be substantial, they are never entirely consistent: a given person's intellectual performance will vary on different occasions, in different domains, as judged by different criteria. Concepts of "intelligence" are attempts to clarify and organize this complex set of phenomena. Although considerable clarity has been achieved in some areas, no such conceptualization has yet answered all the important questions, and none commands universal assent. Indeed, when two dozen prominent theorists were recently asked to define intelligence, they gave two dozen, somewhat different, definitions.

The same Wikipedia page also lists various different definitions given by researchers. The long-windedness of these definitions is somewhat excusable as an attempt to be all-inclusive and general. But in the end, the notion of intelligence is a man-made model, invented to try and explain phenomena. I think a focus on happiness as the central phenomenon to be explained goes a long way in simplifying our understanding of intelligence.

What is the biggest problem in the world?

I have been posing this question to friends and acquaintances (and to myself) in one form or another for a while now. The answers I have received have varied significantly. I am not the first to pose this question of course. Here is one of several online polls, posing the same question, with 700+ responses so far. Here are some others. Some of the responses I have received personally and gathered from various online postings like the ones above, in no particular order include:

Environmental change Poverty, Hunger, clean drinking water
The P vs NP problem Ego
War Communication between people
Lack of tolerance Jobs, economy
Ignorance Fear
Greed Lack of genuine love, hatred
Religion Racism
Moral decline Energy shortage
Sin Drugs
Terrorism Apathy, lack of empathy
Anger Pollution
Love for Money Politics
Forgetfulness of God Overpopulation, limited world resources
Toxic waste Consumerism
Death Selfishness
HIV All –isms: Nationalism, sexism, racism..
Cancer Envy

One of the problems with the way the question is posed above is that it does not specify what 'problem' and 'biggest' mean.

Define problem. We will define problem as 'That which brings suffering to humans'.

Define biggest.  Biggest could mean 'one that affects the largest number of people', 'the scientific problem that would create the biggest impact if solved', or 'one with the greatest economic impact', etc. I am interested in a specific version of this question, in which 'biggest' means 'most fundamental', i.e. one which can be said to be a root cause of many other problems.

Causal structure. A natural question to pose in order to move in the direction of getting an answer to my version of 'biggest problem' is: how many degrees of freedom are really present in the above responses (and what are they)? That is, are they all independent problems, or do they stem from a relatively small set (1-2) of root causes (with others being effects)? For example, lack of tolerance and energy shortage can be said to be causes of war.  It is also clear that not all the problems listed above are at the same level of generality -- some seem intuitively more abstract or fundamental than others. For e.g., war seems more in the realm of effects or symptoms, compared to say anger, fear or greed. In other words, even though they are all problems, some of the items in the list above are really effects rather than causes, and I am interested in the causes. To restate the question properly:

What is the true causal structure of the world problems?

Here is a small toy example of what I mean by causal structure:

An arrow from A to B indicates 'A causes B'. In the above example, energy shortage is stated to be a cause for war, and lack of tolerance is also stated as a cause for war. Also, once energy shortage is taken into account as a cause for war, then war is not caused by overpopulation or consumerism. In other words, overpopulation and consumerism do lead to war, but only through energy shortage.

One correct answer. What strikes me most about the restated question above is that there must exist a definite answer to it. That is, there is an objective reality associated with the question. The causal structure is not a matter of subjective opinion. There is one true structure of cause and effect. I am not claiming the number of independent root causes at the very top of the causal structure is 1 (perhaps this is the case). All I am saying there is one definite causal structure. The 'one correct answer' aspect is interesting because while it is arduous to build a causal structure, checking whether a proposed structure makes sense should be much easier.

I am looking for this causal structure. I think that gaining an understanding of the causal structure can be more insightful than an understanding of the each of the problems in isolation [1]. If you think you have have a causal structure of even part of the list of problems above, please write to me or leave me a comment. If you contact me with a proposed causal structure, please use the following format:

Cause1 -> Effect1 Cause2 -> Effect2

and so on, with one cause-effect pair per line. For the above toy example, this would be:

Overpopulation -> Energy shortage Consumerism -> Energy shortage Energy shortage -> War Lack of tolerance -> War

Think of this as a jigsaw puzzle, in which the problems are the blocks (feel free to pick whatever set of problems you want from the above list, or otherwise. Of course, the more complete the set, the better.), and one has access to as many arrows as needed (The fewer the arrows, the better).

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Notes

[1] I think this may be true in general. In middle school I recall homework and exam questions in various subjects asking us to fill in the blanks or match entries in column A with the entries in column B. I feel explaining the causal structure between a set of things would make a very instructive exercise in school because it would force a student to think.

Time Management

I recently came across a surprisingly lucid model for time management. The model consists of just two variables that together categorize the tasks we do roughly into 4 bins. The two variables are 'Importance' and 'Urgency'. That is, a task has an importance score, and an urgency score. To simplify even further, imagine that each of the two variables is just a binary variable: that is, a given task is either important or not, and either urgent or not.

It is necessary to first understand the difference between 'important' and 'urgent'. An important task is one which is aligned with one's long term goals or makes a significant difference to one's life in the long term. An urgent task is one which demands immediate attention.

Which of the four quadrants above do you think we should operate in? Let's look at each of them:

4: Not urgent, and not important: This is the most useless category. Examples would include mindless browsing, excessive use of Facebook. This  is the quadrant of waste.

3: Not important but urgent: Petty things that sometimes take away our attention and time, preventing us from focusing on the important things, for example: receiving an email about a shopping sale on a website that is about to expire can lead us to stop what we are doing and start looking into shopping online. Very dangerous. This quadrant is called the quadrant of deception.

2: Urgent and important: When something important is delayed till it can no longer be delayed, it becomes urgent. Example: John wants to go to graduate school after college, but has delayed working on his application till the very last minute. Now the task is both important and urgent. This is the quadrant of procrastination. Important tasks done in a hurry are rarely done properly, and do not lead to satisfaction.

1: Not urgent, but important: This is the quadrant of planned action. It is the quadrant we want to be in in order to manage time well. Important tasks are planned and assigned time slots before they become urgent.

Note to self: Eliminate tasks in Q4, Q3, and move tasks in Q2 to Q1.

Edit: I just learnt that this model was popularized by Steven Covey, who passed away unexpectedly earlier this year.